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Friday, November 16, 2007

Kuala Lumpur Stock Index Futures Outlook - Forecast for the day - 04 July 2007!

Kuala Lumpur Stock index futures: Maintain long/Sell-stop @ 1352.0 OL

July futures closed higher by 22.0 point at 1374.0 on relatively high volume of 5,825 lots.

1. What a rally on FKLI yesterday!

2. Yesterdays price activity was significant because we saw an up-gap, which was not filled. This denotes buying strength and we expect another follow through rally today.

3. We would further buy @ 1380 or higher.

4. But while an up-gap denotes strength, it could result in profit-taking and fill the gap today by falling to test 1353.5, Mondays high.

5. Sell-stop should be place below this Monday high, i.e. @ 1352.0 OL.

6. Note that we were right about the discount fizzling out. FKLI is now at a 1-point premium to cash, from a discount of 12-points on Monday. All this is suggesting that the stock market will be strong today.

7. We were correct to maintain longs and we expect FKLI to rally further based on (1) an oversold stochastic, (2) price above lower Bollinger band, (3) a recovering Dow and (4) a strong ringgit.

General commentary: We expect a rising Dow and the strong rinngit to boost the KLCI higher, which will in turn lift the FKLI higher.

Upside Fibonacci target 1466(Revised on June 15)

Downside targets: 1294/1257/1212

Ichimoku chart: (Based on Kumo (clouds) FKLI is still long. Kumo support is at 1206. Ichimoku chart will turn short at 1205 OL) (Updated on June 11, 2007).

Average True Range for KLFE: A.T.R. is 16.00 points for FKLI futures. This implies you need to put a stop above/below this A.T.R. or you can get stopped out due to the volatility factor. We advocate a 1.5 x or 2 x the ATR. We are using a 5 days ATR.

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